Rose Bowl [01 Dec 2007|09:39pm] I have NO IDEA what is going to happen with the BCS and bowl bids tomorrow, but my prediction for the Rose Bowl is USC vs. Illinois. 1 comment|post comment

Games Of Note (Week 14) [30 Nov 2007|02:44pm] Time for my last set of predictions before the bowl games are announced. Can I do better than 50% my last week? For the record, I’m currently at 111-81. Army at Navy Navy beat Notre Dame, so they must be good, right? (#6) Virginia Tech vs. (#11) Boston College I’ve always heard how hard it is was a team to be another team twice in a season, but ESPN just posted that in title game rematches, the team that won originally tends to win the second time as well. Still, I tend to give the edge to the team that lost. So why am I picking Boston College again? Because for all intense purposes*, they DID lose the game. They’ll know what to plan for, anyway. *That was done on purpose, so don’t call me an idiot. It’s just my new phrase. (#14) Tennessee at (#7) LSU I wouldn’t be that surprised if the Vols managed to win this game. I mean, at this point, the two Mississippii’s and Vanderbilt are the only SEC schools that I don’t think could beat them. Florida, Auburn, and Alabama all gave them a run for their money. South Carolina didn’t get blown out and often plays a lot better than they did that day. And Georgia could definitely hang with them. Still, I think the Tigers are motivated enough to pull this out. The question is whether or not their coach has already checked out. ucla at (#8) USC Last year the Trojans were poised for an upset. They were looking ahead to the national championship game. Not this year. They know they need to win to get the Rose Bowl, and they won’t let ucla and its cobble together QBs do much damage. Oregon State at (#17) Oregon The Ducks couldn’t score a single point against ucla. Now, the Bruins may have a good defense, but so do the Beavers. And Oregon State specializes in sacks. That doesn’t bode well for the two Oregon QBs that have never started that are now going to be forced to play. North Texas at Florida International I think FIU finally gets a win. Not sure who has the longest losing streak if that happens. California at Stanford What’s sad for this Bears team is that it wouldn’t be a total shocker if they lost. Pittsburgh at (#2) West Virginia I know this season has been crazy, but come on. Arizona at (#13) Arizona State I’d only be picking against the Sun Devils because I want them to lose. They should win, but the game might be close. (#9) Oklahoma at (#1) Missouri They win this rematch on the hands and feet of Chase Daniel. Washington at (#12) Hawaii This needs to happen in order to validate my prediction back on October 18th that this season would end without any undefeated teams. Unfortunately, the Huskies will need to put up some points to hang with them. Maybe that running back of theirs will have another huge game. 6 comments|post comment

My Top 12 (Week 13) [30 Nov 2007|02:07pm] Time for my weekly Top 12. This is the next to last one before bowl season. #12: Hawaii I’m finally willing to give them a little bit of legitimacy after their convincing win over Boise State. If they had only played one other decent team, I might be willing to put them in the Top Ten. And in steps Washington, which is probably the definition of a decent team (neither good nor bad, though definitely leaning toward the latter). Beating them wouldn’t necessarily prove anything, but it would get the Warriors into a BCS bowl. I think Willingham is safe in Washington for at least another season, but if he beats Hawaii, there will be so much love coming his way from traditionalists that he’ll be guaranteed to come back. #11: Boston College Normally a ranked finish would be more than enough to make the fans happy, but after the team was given a chance to make the title game and blew it, they need to finish in the Top Ten to appease the fans. #10: Florida I don’t care how many losses they have; I doubt any team would want to play them. When I turned on the TV last weekend to watch part of their game against Florida State, I saw them run five straight running plays. The first four went for at least first downs, and the last went for a touchdown. It was that easy. #9: Oklahoma It’s kind of insulting to the #1 team that they are listed as an underdog to the #9 team. I don’t think this will work out well for the Sooners. #8: Virginia Tech Until they make someone suffer a humiliating defeat at their hands, I won’t be able to forget the pounding LSU gave them. #7: USC A fitting #7, as I just read on ESPN that the Trojans have allowed only 7 passing touchdowns this season. And remember that the first two of those were in garbage time against Nebraska. Still, I wish it was only 6 passing touchdowns. #6: Georgia They are playing some really good football right now and would be the best two loss team if not for #5. #5: LSU Say what you will about their numerous close calls, but when your only two losses are both in triple overtime to one team that has a potential Heisman candidate and another that has a legitimate Heisman candidate, I’d say you’re pretty good. #4: Ohio State I still don’t think they are very good. I hope USC is ready to prove that. #3: Kansas I don’t get why Kansas fell below Ohio State and some of the two loss teams. West Virginia I can understand, but not the rest. The Jayhawks only lost by 8 points to the team that is now #1. People have been faulting their schedule, but they played a competitive game against a good team. The only reason I don’t have them #2 is that no matter how many times they played Missouri, I don’t see them winning. #2: West Virginia The loss to South Florida looks worse these days, but the way the Mountaineers are playing keeps looking better and better. #1: Missouri They’ve definitely earned it. post comment

How I Did [26 Nov 2007|09:54pm] In last week's picks I went 9-10. After about halfway through the season I just stopped being very good at the predictions. Here's a quick note on what happened. *USC did indeed beat Arizona State, and convincingly at that. Not they are one win away from the Rose Bowl. However, the Stanford loss looms larger than ever because without it, the Trojans would be in the thick of the national championship race. *Colorado beat Nebraska and out goes Callahan. Good move I'd have to say. He got the offense going, but the defense was non-existent. *LSU fell to Arkansas, which took me by surprise. I knew the Razorbacks were capable of putting up a fight, but if you had told me they'd survive after three overtimes, I never would have believed you. (Of course, I wouldn't have believed that with Kentucky either.) It says something about the Tigers when their only losses are both in triple overtime, but they still let Arkansas run wild on them. So much for that amazing defense. *The Aggies beat the Longhorns, which was not what I expected since their coach was clearly on the way out the door. This is also a good decision. *Boise State couldn't get it done against Hawaii. I have to give the Warriors a little more credit, but it would have been nice if they had had one other decent team on their schedule. I will still be rooting for Washington to beat them. *Boston College did beat Miami, which was the first time they'd done so since Doug Flutie's Heisman-winning hail mary. That's ridiculous. *Maryland didn't just beat North Carolina State. They destroyed them. *Virginia lost to Virginia Tech, which gives the Hokies a rematch against Boston College. Maybe this time they'll remember that a football game is 60 minutes and not 58 minutes. *Kentucky lost to Tennessee in FOUR overtimes. I guess the SEC is trying to prove how tough they are with all of these overtime games. *Stanford lost to Notre Dame, which made the Irish 2-1 in the PAC-10. That doesn't speak so well for us. *Oregon has fallen a lot further than I thought. They couldn't do anything against ucla. Of course, the Bruins couldn't do much either. I heard the game was just sad to watch. But that makes me happy for what should happen Saturday. *Georgia let it stay close for awhile, but they put Georgia Tech away easily. Unless things shake up a lot, they should be guaranteed an at-large BCS bid. (And they will probably get one even if they aren't guaranteed.) *Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State even though the Big 12 Championship was a lock already following the Texas loss. *West Virginia ran all over Cincinnati and are now one win away from the national championship game that they should have been in last year. *Florida let Florida State kick a 60-yard field goal right before the half. That's the only impressive thing they did. Tebow was a beast. If he doesn't win the Heisman, it's because he's a sophomore. (Oh, and he played most of the game with a broken [non-throwing] hand. Plus I read that in high school, he once finished a game with a broken leg.) *Washington once again couldn't get it done, falling to Washington State. I think they are going to be a lot better next year if they don't do something stupid and fire Willingham. *South Carolina lost to Clemson. No real excuse for that. *Auburn beat Alabama for the sixth year in a row. War Eagle! *Kansas lost to Missouri but almost made it a game at the end. Missouri looks great though and only has to beat Oklahoma this time around to make the championship game. 1 comment|post comment

I Should Be Fired [22 Nov 2007|12:12am] Oh wait...I'm not being paid. Anyway, here are my picks. I don't have time to elaborate. USC beats Arizona State to put themselves in position to win the PAC-10 Colorado beats Nebraska in a battle to become bowl eligible LSU beats Arkansas Texas beats Texas A&M Boise State beats Hawaii in a battle to remain in the hunt for a BCS at-large spot Boston College beats Miami Maryland beats North Carolina State in a battle to become bowl eligible Virginia beats Virginia Tech in a battle to make the ACC Championship Game Kentucky beats Tennessee which puts Georgia in the SEC Championship Game Stanford beats Notre Dame in a battle of mediocrity versus suck Oregon beats ucla because they haven't fallen apart quite that much yet Georgia beats Georgia Tech because it's almost a given (though it has been a crazy year) Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State to make the Big 12 Championship Game West Virginia beats Connecticut in a battle for the Big East Florida beats Florida State in a battle of the new versus the old Washington beats Washington State in a battle to see which team is slightly worse in the PAC-10 South Carolina beats Clemson because Clemson hasn't lost enough games that they should have won yet Auburn beats Alabama because Saban compared football to war Kansas beats Missouri because this crazy season isn't over yet post comment

My Top 12 (Week 11) [15 Nov 2007|11:58pm] Well, Oregon just lost, but that's understandable after losing Dixon, who they have to replace with Leaf, changing their whole gameplan. #12: Texas It's a toss up between them and the Hokies, but I can forgive a slaughter on the road to LSU much more than I can a slaughter at home to Kansas State. #11: Virginia Tech Their game against Virginia, weekend after this one, will determine one of the two teams in the ACC Championship Game. #10: USC The Trojans need to worry about winning their last two games and letting the chips fall where they may. #9: Georgia I expect the Bulldogs will get into the SEC Championship game after Tennessee stumbles against Kentucky. #8: Arizona State This is tough, because they have a better record than Oregon but lost to them. Also, I have no idea how serious Dixon's injury is. Since all three losses are understandable, and Oregon has the win over them, I went with this. #7: Oregon I'll be interested to see where they are actually ranked after this weekend, especially if some other teams lose. #6: Ohio State I'd drop them further just because I thought they were way overrated to begin with, but that would disrespect Illinois, who played a great football game. #5: Missouri I've been waiting for this team to finish near the top for a few years now. Here's their chance. #4: West Virginia Still some work to be done, but they can establish their place as the team to beat in the Big East. #3: Oklahoma Is a rematch of the 2003 Sugar Bowl brewing? At least this time it wouldn't be one-sided. #2: LSU The question of Les Miles' departure will affect things a lot more than anyone there will admit. #1: Kansas What can I say? Maybe they don't quite deserve this ranking yet, but until they lose, it's hard to say that they would without a doubt lose to the other teams on this list. 2 comments|post comment

BCS: My Predictions [13 Nov 2007|09:06pm] I said previously that I was going to post about USC's chances of making a BCS bowl and what teams stood in their way. Then Quincy went and challenged me to predict who would play in all of the games, and like any foolish Southerner, I have to accept a challenge. Here you'll see my predictions and why I think they will happen. Let's get the big one out of the way: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME #1 Oklahoma vs. #2 Oregon Why: Obviously LSU has to lose, and with the haphazard way they've been playing lately, I see that being very likely. There's a great possibility it could happen in the SEC Championship game, but if Felix Jones is healthy again when they play Arkansas, and McFadden finds his rhythm, it could happen then. So that's step one. Next, I think Oklahoma wins out, and I think they beat an undefeated Kansas team in the Big 12 Championship Game, which will give them enough of a boost to jump to pass Oregon. (Which will propel them to #1 if LSU loses.) Finally, Oregon has a pretty easy schedule for its last three games and has the luxury of not playing a championship game. The downside of that is that it could hurt them in the computers, but if LSU loses, it will actually help them since they have a high chance of winning out. The rivalry game with Oregon State is the only one I wouldn't be shocked if they lost. Winner: Oregon (and not because of a horrible call at the end this time) ORANGE BOWL Virginia vs. Cincinnati Why: Virginia gets in as ACC Champions, which are contractually bond to the Orange Bowl. I see them beating Virginia Tech in the last regular game of the season. Then they'll beat an overrated Boston College team that only made the game because Clemson collapsed like they always do. If Clemson gets past Boston College, then they'll collapse in the ACC Championship game, giving Virginia the win. Cincinnati will be Big East champion. I see them upsetting West Virginia this weekend. While I don't expect WV to shoot themselves in the foot as much as they did against Louisville, the mere fact that they couldn't score against that abysmal defense (plus the way they played against a tough South Florida defense), makes me think they'll stumble against Cincy. But the Big East champion is not tied to any specific bowl and must instead be chosen as an at-large, the only rule being that the bowl with the last pick has to take them if no one else has. Since they are low profile, I don't see the Fiesta or Rose Bowl (which has the first and second pick in my scenario by virtue of losing Oklahoma and Oregon to the championship game), taking them. The Orange bowl has the next pick, and since the Big East champion has played there in the past, I think they'll go with them. FIESTA BOWL Kansas vs. LSU Why: Both of these teams will get in as at-large qualifiers. I'm not sure how far Kansas will fall in the BCS if their only loss is to Oklahoma, but I doubt they'll be as high as fourth, which would be the only way they would automatically qualify. But I still think they'll be chosen. The Fiesta Bowl would lose the Big 12 Champion to the Championship game and would love to replace them. I think LSU will wind up losing another game. It's possible they could lose to Arkansas and then win the SEC Championship Game, which would put them in the Sugar Bowl instead of here. But I think either Tennessee rolls through its next two games and comes in with the full head of steam, or the Vols lose to Kentucky, which opens the gates for Georgia who would love a shot at them. LSU is such an attractive team that the Fiesta Bowl might take them with their first pick instead of taking Kansas, since it's likely to be around a little longer. Winner: LSU (though I'm curious to see if the Jayhawks can score against them) SUGAR BOWL Georgia vs. West Virginia/Virginia Tech/Illinois Why: Georgia gets in as the SEC Champion and is automatically tied to this bowl. Right now I see Tennessee stumbling to Kentucky because the Wildcats will be playing to break a 22-year long losing streak. And the Bulldogs will be ready to prove themselves against LSU. The other team is the one that causes me the most confusion because each team would have three losses, and they have to be ranked at least fourteenth to be eligible. One loss won't knock West Virginia down enough to make them ineligible, but if they somehow give away the game (or flat out lose) to Connecticut, that would. Depending on how high Virginia Tech climbs before the last game, the loss to Virginia might knock them just below #14, and they wouldn't have another game to pull themselves back up. Plus, the losers of the conference championships would either not fall enough to move them up or already be below them. But if they are eligible and West Virginia is not, they'd be picked. Illinois is my long shot for a lot of reasons. The first being that they are currently ranked #19 and only have one game against Northwestern remaining. But in my scenario, I expect numbers 15, 16, and 17 to lose, and number 18 might as well. That could just get them to #14. But I don't know if they are popular enough to take, though their fans would surely be willing to travel. If neither of those first two are eligible and the Fighting Illini are, it could happen. Winner: West Virginia (if they make it); Georgia (if anyone else does) ROSE BOWL Ohio State vs. USC Why: Ohio State gets the automatic bid by beating Michigan. Now that it's all but official that Lloyd Carr is retiring after this season, it would be too perfect if he ended by winning the Big 10. And it will actually work out better for him because maybe he can go to a bowl game that he can actually win. USC (if they win out) will be BCS eligible, and the Rose Bowl would jump at the chance to have their Big 10/PAC-10 match-up. Plus these teams have had a few classic Rose Bowls, but it's been awhile. Plus, they play in the regular season the next two years, so it would be a fun preview. THE MONKEY WRENCHES Who: Hawaii & Boise State The Rule: A non-BCS team gets an automatic bid if they either (A) finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings or (B) finish in the top 16 of the BCS standings but are ranked ahead of a team that gets in by winning its conference. The B Scenario is highly unlikely, but there are a few chances. If West Virginia beats Cincinnati but loses to Connecticut, UConn could win the Big East and not be ranked above one of those teams. Or, if Georgia and Tennessee BOTH lose another game, I'm not sure who from the SEC East would get the bid as it's too confusing to figure out. But if that team upsets LSU, it would automatically qualify and yet could be ranked below one of those teams. The A Scenario is more likely, but if it happens, it will be Boise State. I don't see Hawaii winning all three remaining games against Nevada, Boise State, and Washington. If their only loss is to Boise State, which is the Broncos last game, that could propel them to #12 should some other teams lose. But I think they'll fall just short. 1 comment|post comment

And I Quote... [12 Nov 2007|11:10pm] Well, 9-9 ain't great, but it's a hell of a lot better than 3-11. Some of the ones that I picked wrong I could have seen going either way, but the ones I was most surprised about were also some of the ones I was happiest about. South Florida 41, Syracuse 10 "A few weeks ago, who would have thought that these two teams would be tied in the Big East when they played?" Certainly not South Florida, and they apparently weren't very happy about it. Clemson 41, Wake Forest 7 "Clemson is on a winning streak and could really help their chances of making the championship game if they win. That sets the perfect stage for a classic "Clemson collapse." Like a watched pot trying to boil, Clemson collapses only happen when you don't predict them. Wisconsin 37, Michigan 21 "The Wolverines beating the Buckeyes next week and winning the Big Ten would be the perfect ending (well, near the end) of this crazy season." I didn't realize this when I wrote it, but that was gonna happen regardless. But with Ohio State losing as well, it's not a battle for the outright championship. Missouri 40, Texas A&M 26 "When you know your coach is out at the end of the season, it's hard to play for him." Or it's impossible. Tennessee 34, Arkansas 13 "McFadden could just as easily follow up his SEC-record tying performance from last week with a really disappointing game." McFadden, stop reading my blog. Boise State 52, Utah State 0 "Utah State is winless. Boise State is not." Boise State scores points. Utah State does not. Arizona State 24, ucla 20 "Did you know that ucla still controls its own PAC-10 champion/Rose Bowl fate?" Not anymore...suckers. Illinois 28, Ohio State 21 "If Juice Williams is on, they could egg on the Buckeyes and keep them in a jam. But if he's too pulpy, they're toast. (Aren't I clever?)" Ohio State = Scrambled Also, to quote Colin Raye, "I love being wrong when it feels like it feels tonight." Texas 59, Texas Tech 43 "That's just who I choose. I don't feel like getting technical." Not sure if you realized, but that was a joke. Just like Texas Tech. Virginia Tech 40, Florida State 21 "I think FSU can upset a ranked team on the road two weeks in a row." Virginia Tech doesn't think so. Though they could have if games were only 3 quarters long. Cincinnati 27, Connecticut 3 "Undefeated in the Big East and it feels so good." One loss in the Big East and it doesn't feel quite as good. Virginia 48, Miami 0 "It's the last home game in the Orange Bowl before the Hurricanes move on to a new stadium. They'll go out with a win." No one told Miami it was their last game there, I guess. That's really sad, actually, and I HATE Miami. But a shutout? Geez. Florida 51, South Carolina 31 "The Ole Ball Coach loses to the New Ball Coach." And how! FIVE RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS FOR TEBOW! Good Lord! USC 24, California 17 "I don't think it will be pretty, but I do think it will be a 'W.'" I had no idea it would be THAT ugly. I think playing in the rain actually helped Chauncey a lot. It certainly didn't help our snaps when we have a QB and a center with bad hands. Maryland 42, Boston College 35 "Tailspin." Man, wasn't that a great show? Kansas 43, Oklahoma State 28 "Kansas can also score points, plus they seem to have a defense of some kind." Not a great defense, but it's good enough if they can keep scoring points like that. Hawaii 37, Fresno State 30 "Because unlike all of Hawaii's previous opponents, Fresno State doesn't suck." Hawaii doesn't suck a little bit less. Georgia 45, Auburn 20 "This game always seems to be close, and I like Auburn's chances in a game that comes down to defense." Uh...yeah, none of those things. 4 comments|post comment

Games of Note (Week 11) [09 Nov 2007|09:58pm] Last time I made predictions, I went 3-11. At least that's still better than what the Fighting Irish's season will probably look like, but I'll try to do a little better this week. YTD Record: 93-62 AND THEN THERE WERE THREE Only three undefeated teams left, and none of them play pushovers this week. Ohio State is the one I'd most love to see go down, but I doubt that will happen. Hawaii losing would also make me happy, plus it would help USC's BCS bowl chances. And I think it's gonna happen. I can't help but root for the underdog Kansas team though, and I think they'll win again and keep that dream alive. GAMES OF NOTE South Florida at Syracuse A few weeks ago, who would have thought that these two teams would be tied in the Big East when they played? Wake Forest at (#21) Clemson Clemson is on a winning streak and could really help their chances of making the championship game if they win. That sets the perfect stage for a classic "Clemson collapse." (#12) Michigan at Wisconsin The Wolverines beating the Buckeyes next week and winning the Big Ten would be the perfect ending (well, near the end) of this crazy season. Texas A&M at (#6) Missouri When you know your coach is out at the end of the season, it's hard to play for him. Arkansas at (#22) Tennessee McFadden could just as easily follow up his SEC-record tying performance from last week with a really disappointing game. But even if he's half as good as last week, he should keep the Razorbacks in the game. He just needs to score more touchdowns. (#20) Boise State at Utah State Utah State is winless. Boise State is not. (#9) Arizona State at ucla Did you know that ucla still controls its own PAC-10 champion/Rose Bowl fate? Also, did you know that they are being forced to start their FOURTH string quarterback, a converted wide receiver? Unless he can throw to himself, I don't see that going well. Illinois at (#1) Ohio State If Juice Williams is on, they could egg on the Buckeyes and keep them in a jam. But if he's too pulpy, they're toast. (Aren't I clever?) Texas Tech at (#14) Texas That's just who I choose. I don't feel like getting technical. Florida State at (#11) Virginia Tech I think FSU can upset a ranked team on the road two weeks in a row. (#13) Connecticut at Cincinnati Undefeated in the Big East and it feels so good. (#19) Virginia at Miami It's the last home game in the Orange Bowl before the Hurricanes move on to a new stadium. They'll go out with a win. (#15) Florida at South Carolina The Ole Ball Coach loses to the New Ball Coach. (#17) USC at California I don't think it will be pretty, but I do think it will be a "W." (#8) Boston College at Maryland Tailspin. (#4) Kansas at Oklahoma State All OSU knows how to do is score points, and sometimes they can't even do that. Kansas can also score points, plus they seem to have a defense of some kind. UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK UPOTW Prediction Record: 2-7 Fresno State at (#16) Hawaii Because unlike all of Hawaii's previous opponents, Fresno State doesn't suck. GAME OF THE WEEK GOTW Prediction Record: 4-5 (#18) Auburn at (#10) Georgia This game always seems to be close, and I like Auburn's chances in a game that comes down to defense. Plus, the Tigers have shown that they aren't intimidated by playing in tough venues on the road. And lastly, the Tigers already avenged one loss from last year by beating Arkansas. The loss to Georgia was worse, and this rivalry runs deep, so I'll expect they want this more. post comment

My Top 12 (Week 10) [07 Nov 2007|01:46pm] It’s time for my weekly (well, in theory) Top 12. #12: Virginia Tech I nearly gave this spot to Hawaii, but they are just now about to play some actual teams. If they finished undefeated and every other team on this list keeps winning (where possible), I’d probably rank them fifth. But they didn’t get this spot. VT did, so let me talk about them for a second. I consider them the third best two-loss team based on their losses. You might look at it and say that the fact that the two teams they lost to were ranked #2 at the time should elevate them about USC and Georgia. But it’s the nature of the losses that I take into consideration. First, there’s that pasting by LSU early in the year that I still can’t get out of my head. I don’t care how good the team is, losing like that is just embarrassing. And as other teams have shown, you can put up points on LSU if you have an effective offense. (Though, to be fair, LSU has been killing themselves with penalties lately while they weren’t in the VT game.) Second, there’s the ridiculous loss to Boston College. When you are playing the #2 team in the nation and have stymied their offense for 3 and 2/3rds quarters, holding on to a 10-0 lead, shouldn’t you be able to buckle down and pull out the victory? Or at the least, only let them tie it up and force overtime? Not if you’re Virginia Tech, who allowed a field-length drive followed by an onside kick recovery and then another touchdown. That shows you don’t have an effective defense, or at least not a “closer” defense. No offense + no defense = Not the best two-loss team #11: USC If the Trojans had an offense that was slightly better than decent (because decent is the level they are currently sitting at right now), they’d very likely have 3-4 more shut-outs than they currently do. My point is, despite everything that has happened, you cannot blame the defense. Pretty much every touchdown they have given up falls into one of three categories: 1. Garbage time 2. Short fields after the Trojan offense turned the ball over 3. The offense having back-to-back (if not more) three and outs, thus keeping the defense on the field for an extended amount of time But even in the second half against Oregon State, when the offense could not get a first down the entire third quarter, the defense held. Imagine if they had some help. The offense doesn’t even necessarily need to get more touchdowns, but first downs would be nice. I thought they played a great game against Oregon, and I think Oregon is an awesome team. So I’m pretty happy with what they are doing lately. They have a decent (there’s that word again) at winning out. If that happens, there’s still a chance that they’ll wind up in a BCS bowl, but they probably need some help. (I’ll talk about that in a later post.) #10: Georgia This spot would be undeserved were it not for that convincing 12-point win over Florida where they held Tim Tebow to a career low -15 yards rushing. (Of course, he still managed to get two rushing touchdowns.) The close loss to South Carolina is understandable as that game was all about defense. The blow-out loss to Tennessee is kind of an anomaly considering that the Volunteers had their own blow-out losses to Alabama and Florida. A win over Auburn would solidify their spot and probably move them up to boot. #9: Boston College Can someone explain to me why in EVERY SINGLE POLL Boston College is 8th and Arizona State is 9th? (Well, not my poll, because I’m correcting a grievous error.) Boston College lost AT HOME by 10 points to an unranked, three loss Florida State time. Plus they nearly lost the previous week to Virginia Tech. And their offense looked far from convincing against both the inept Notre Dame Irish and Div. I-AA Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Arizona State lost by 12 to the NUMBER THREE TEAM IN THE NATION (that everyone can agree is playing exceptionally well right now) in Autzen Stadium (notoriously difficult to play in). Other than a 3-point win over Washington State, all of their wins have been by at least 11 points. And I think we can all agree that the PAC-10 has a lot more depth than the ACC this year. So again, I ask, can anyone explain this? #8: Arizona State I’ve already said a lot about this team, and despite the fact that I am advocating for them to be ranked above Boston College, I really don’t think they are that good. Their coach is amazing at making half-time adjustments, but there isn’t a single player on the team that I’m impressed with. This just makes me worried about when they DO get some good players, which they certainly will after a season like this. I think they’ll lose at least one of their last three games. Obviously, I hope they lose to USC. #7: West Virginia That loss to South Florida doesn’t look as impressive now that they’ve lost three straight. But it was a long time ago, and WV has done great things since then. Their last game against Pittsburgh should be a gimme, but they can make a statement by beating Louisville, Cincinnati, and Connecticut. #6: Missouri They haven’t beaten anyone of merit, but at the same time they’ve only lost to Oklahoma. And that was only by 10 points. The game against Kansas will tell us which one is the better team. And if Missouri can get past the Jayhawks, I like their chances in a rematch against the Sooners. #5: Oklahoma How, HOW did the Sooners lose to Colorado? They may think about that for years. Especially if a one-loss LSU or Oregon gets to play an undefeated Ohio State team and destroy them. #4: Kansas We know Nebraska isn’t good (or has just plain given up), but putting 76 points on anyone is still really impressive. Again, you can definitely argue that Kansas hasn’t played anyone impressive. But if they beat a one-loss Missouri team and a one-loss Oklahoma team in the championship game, they have earned a chance to play for the national championship. #3: Oregon We could all argue the Oregon/LSU thing until we’re blue in the face. No one can deny that LSU has played a tougher schedule. No one can argue that Oregon isn’t playing great football. LSU has a better strength of schedule, and if they win a conference championship game, they deserve the #2 slot. But really I’d like to see Ohio State lose so that Oregon and LSU can duke it out. That game could be awesome. #2: LSU The Tigers had the same kind of penalty and turnover riddled miraculous victory game over Alabama that USC had over Washington. The thing is, though, that as good as a coach at Willingham is, Saban is much, much better and has a much better team. My point is, imagine would LSU would have been doing to teams lately if they HADN’T been getting so many penalties. If they can cut those down, other teams are in trouble. #1: Ohio State After their victory over Wisconsin, I begrudgingly have to give this spot to them. I always want Michigan to beat them, but never more so than this year. 2 comments|post comment

MIA [06 Nov 2007|10:47am] You probably noticed that I failed to update this blog at all last week. Or maybe you didn’t. I don’t really feel that bad about it. I had a busy week, so it wasn’t ALL laziness that kept me away. And it’s not as if I’m getting paid to do this. Plus, I doubt anyone is relying on my picks to make their football bets, judging from the fact that no one has yet attempt to kill me for losing their life savings. So for this week I’ll have to skip the results since I didn’t make any predictions for last weekend, and I seriously doubt you care to see how my predictions for two weekends ago panned out. I’ll do another top twelve list and make predictions for this weekend, but first I’d like to talk about the huge thing that happened this weekend. THE DESERT WANDERING IS OVER Moses and the Israelites spent 40 years aimlessly walking through the desert before coming to the Promised Land. Navy spent even longer. But after 43 straight losses to Notre Dame, they finally got their revenge. This was without a doubt the most ridiculous streak in sports futility. Not reaching a World Series? That’s somewhat understandable no matter how good your team is. You have to win a lot of games just to make the playoffs, and then you have to beat equally good or better teams than you more than once. But all we’re talking about here is beating one other team, just once. And they couldn’t do it in 43 tries. Couldn’t get lucky EVEN ONCE. Couldn’t injury a key Notre Dame player and take advantage. There would probably be some similar streaks if certain colleges played certain teams each and every year, but 43 times is absolutely ludicrous. As usual, Navy was only adequate this year. But Notre Dame was abysmal. If they were going to do it any year, this was it. So I just knew I had to watch. It didn’t disappoint. It took THREE overtimes, but Navy finally did it. After they stuffed the Notre Dame running back on the two-point conversion attempt that would have tied up the game and sent it into another overtime, some of the players ran so quickly to celebrate that they fell down. It was awesome. Charlie Weis, meanwhile, continues to boggle the mind. With a little over 4 minutes left in the game, down by a touchdown, ND faced 4th and 12 from there own side of the field. A competent team would have punted and used all three of the timeouts it had to get better field position. But ND hadn’t been able to stop Navy all day, so there was a chance they’d never get the ball back if they punted. Going for it was the right decision, especially since they got it on a play that was one quarterback step away from being a huge sack. However, the fact that going for it was the correct thing to do just shows how awful this team is. But after ND tied up the game, Navy played stupidly. They aren’t a team that scores quickly but that’s just what they tried to do instead of running out the clock and playing in overtime. This resulted in a 35 yard punt that was returned 32 yards. I figured ND was already in game-winning field goal range. Apparently their coach didn’t agree with me. On 4th & 8 from Navy’s 24, they WENT FOR IT instead of trying for the field goal. A Navy player blitzed, and when the running back hunkered down to block, he LEAPT OVER HIM. I can just imagine that “43 years! 43 years!” was playing in his head over and over as he was running. Ultimately, a guy coming up the middle is the one that really got the sack, but I’m sure it was a distraction. Weis later claimed that he knew his field goal kicker couldn’t make it from there, and when questioned about whether or not he would have done it differently, he responded with, “And miss the field goal anyway?” Gee, Coach, you don’t think there’s even a CHANCE the guy could have made it? Maybe accidentally? Even if you’re 100% certain he can’t make it, at some point you have to think about what the fans are thinking. Maybe you should show them that the guy can’t kick and then they wouldn’t question you so much in the future. He must REALLY not trust that kicker because on a 4th & 18 earlier in the game, they tried to RUN a fake field goal with their QUARTERBACK. Weis later claimed the defense was set up differently than he expected. You mean it wasn’t set up in the way that would allow your slow-ass quarterback to run up the middle for 18 yards? You were surprised they weren’t in a prevent defense? Even though I was glad they hadn’t won, I didn’t like Navy’s chances in overtime. But they scored first, and all they had to do was stop Notre Dame. But ND scored. Then they held ND to a field goal. But on their own third down, the Navy running back took a sweep toss and looked to pass. No one was open. He passed anyway. It should have been intercepted. Thankfully it wasn’t, and they kicked the field goal that barely snuck inside the uprights. On the first play of the third overtime, Navy scored a touchdown. And then got the two points. This was it. But ND scored a touchdown when it looked like they’d be stuffed on a 3rd and 4. The two-point attempt came, and it was a pass. And it was incomplete! But there was a flag! Pass interference! Replays showed that it was a questionable call. But at this point, I had given up hope. Navy couldn’t hold out forever, and if they weren’t getting any breaks. But then the fateful two-point conversion attempt came and went, and the streak was over. Weis claimed that streak didn’t bother him as much as losing 5 straight at home did. While I’m certain he was a little upset about it, I can believe him. But then he said the players didn’t care, and that I can’t believe for a second. If Notre Dame gets it together the next few seasons, at least enough to beat Navy, they’ll always be the ones that broke the streak. Weis said, “These kids are 17. You think they're worrying about 43 years?” Maybe that’s the problem, Coach. You’re playing with a bunch of 17-year olds because you didn’t bother to prepare anyone else for when your last set of players left. 3 comments|post comment

Games Of Note (Week 9) [25 Oct 2007|04:27pm] There’s a game starting soon and incorrect picks to be made. So I’d better get to it. Last Week’s Prediction Record: 8-9 YTD Prediction Record: 90-51 AND THEN THERE WERE FIVE If more than one of these teams makes it to the end of the season unbeaten, I’ll eat my hat. (Of course, my hat is made of filet mignon.) Three of the five teams played ranked conference teams. All three could just as easily win or lose. I’m picking all three to lose, but I doubt it will seriously happen. Even so, I’m saying that there will only be two undefeated teams once the weekend is over. And neither of those teams will be ranked #1. UNDEFEATEDS In just a little while, the undefeated Boston College Eagles play the Virginia Tech Hokies in Blacksburg. (#2) Boston College at (#8) Virginia Tech BC is not a proven #2. But VT is also not a proven #9. Their most memorably performance was a slaughter at the hands of LSU. The reason I side with them is that they have a much better offense than a Notre Dame team that managed to put up 17 points on the Eagles. They also have a much better defense than the one that allowed only 28 points. Consider those numbers, and it should give VT just enough to win. Saturday afternoon, the Kansas Jayhawks plays at the Texas A&M Aggies. (#9) Kansas at Texas A&M It wouldn’t surprise me if Kansas lost. (Which is a statement I would normally say.) But it also wouldn’t surprise me if they won convincingly. (Which is a statement I would normally NEVER say…about football, that is.) Saturday night, the undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils host the wounded California Golden Bears. (#21) California at (#4) Arizona State Sure Cal is wounded. But have you ever dealt with a wounded bear? Even though it’s not the NFL, the undefeated Hawaii Warriors play on Sunday, hosting the New Mexico State Aggies. New Mexico State at (#17) Hawaii Hawaii is a great…vacation destination. OTHER GAMES OF NOTE Boise State at Fresno State Both are undefeated in the WAC. I’ll give the nod to the Bulldogs for two reasons. One, I recently watched their game from 2005 against USC and are awarding nostalgia props. Two, the game ain’t on the blue turf. (#7) West Virginia at Rutgers This is an elimination game for the Big East championship. Rutgers is riding high, and I expect them to stay there for awhile. Arizona at Washington The Huskies finally get a PAC-10 win. Man, they are WAY better than their record. Wait until next year. (#10) South Florida at (#23) Connecticut This is when we find out that the Huskies record was a fluke. (#11) Florida at (#18) Georgia Tebow for Heisman! Minnesota at (#20) Michigan The Golden Gophers lost to North Dakota State. Even Lloyd Carr wouldn’t do that. Oh…wait. ucla at Washington State I don’t want the Bruins to win. But I don’t see the Cougars beating them. Plus, I’ll be happy if the Huskies are the first Washington team to get a PAC-10 win. Stanford at Oregon State Can the Cardinal keep their PAC-10 road game winning steak alive? (#16) South Carolina at Tennessee The same Volunteers team that just got blown out by Alabama is gonna blow out the Gamecocks. UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK UPOTW Prediction Record: 2-6 Picking upsets is a tough job, but somebody’s gotta do it. And since the undefeated number one Ohio State Buckeyes are also extremely overrated, they are who I’m picking as a victim. (#1) Ohio State at (#25) Penn State Playing at Apple Valley at night isn’t easy. Especially when you actually suck. GAME OF THE WEEK GOTW Prediction Record: 4-4 (#12) USC at (#5) Oregon Sure I’m biased, but this game actually has some very interesting match-ups. USC has the fifth best defense. Oregon has the second best offense. Which one will prevail? It won’t be hard for USC to hold the Ducks below their rushing total of last week, which was a ridiculous 440-plus yards. Holding them below 200 or 150 yards will be a tougher challenge. But I think USC’s offense steps up, especially the wide receivers. And I think a healthy offensive line will allow them to run successfully. Oh, and I think Booty will return and silence some of his critics. But really, all I want is a win. (And, barring that, not to be blown out.) 1 comment|post comment

My Top 12 (Week 8) [24 Oct 2007|09:15pm] This is gonna be short and sweet, just like a midget covered in honey. Or a midget with a nice personality. #12: Virginia Tech In my eyes, they still haven't made up for that drubbing they took at the hands of LSU. A win over Boston College will give them a little more credit in my book. #11: Florida Even with their two losses, I have to hesitate a lot to put this team here because they could probably beat all the teams ranked above them. They'd give them all a game, at the very least. #10: USC Sure, I'm a little biased. While the Trojans looked great, it was just Notre Dame. But the defense has been stellar all season long. It's only when the offense isn't helping them out AT ALL that they tend to give up any sustained drives. We'll see what happens Saturday. #9: West Virginia With White healthy again, watch out. #8: South Florida I don't necessarily think they are the 8th best team, but I have to put them above WV, and I can't really justify putting WV any lower than 9th. #7: Kansas Only one semi-quality win. But it's hard to deny a 7-0 record. Unless you're Hawaii. (Who, by the way, isn't in my top 12 because of another close win to a team they should be able to blow out.) #6: Oklahoma The Big 12 Championship awaits...unless they screw up. #5: Arizona State If they beat Cal this weekend, I'll finally give them some respect. #4: Oregon I really hope they fall down on this list after the weekend. #3: Ohio State This is how much I hate the Buckeyes. #2: LSU They get points simply for how ridiculous that last play to win against Auburn. #1: Boston College I don't believe this for a second. But it's better than the Buckeyes being here. post comment

And I Quote... [23 Oct 2007|08:17pm] 8-9 on predictions for last weekend, though a number of those came down to the wire. If I keep this up, I'll eventually wind up even overall. "Still, once this weekend is over, I think there will only be 4 undefeated teams left. Two of them are going to lose this weekend." There are still five left. And the only one I picked to win lost. However, I am now more reassured of my prediction that this season will end without any undefeated teams. Rutgers 30, South Florida 27 "This would be considered a trap game for the Bulls…except that they are fully aware that it’s a trap game, thus negating that quality." I guess you can still get trapped even when you know what it is you're walking into. Kansas 19, Colorado 14 "If the Buffs can knock of an undefeated Oklahoma team at home, they definitely have a chance to knock off an undefeated Kansas team." "If" doesn't always come true. Penn State 36, Indiana 31 "Who would have thought that when these two teams played each other, they’d have the same overall and Big 10 records?" And who would have thought that the Hoosiers would give the Nittany Lions a run for their money? Alabama 41, Tennessee 17 "How is anyone supposed to predict games in the SEC?" Oh, nevermind. Obviously Alabama blew out a Tennessee team that blew out a Georgia team that Alabama lost to in overtime. What the heck? Vanderbilt 17, South Carolina 6 "Think the Gamecocks were watching when Vandy gave Georgia almost everything it could handle?" Guess not. Texas A&M 36, Nebraska 14 "The question isn’t whether or not they’ll win. The question is by how much. Not as bad as I thought it would be. ucla 30, California 21 "Anyone else tired of ucla being undefeated in the PAC-10?" Damn. Miami 37, Florida State 29 "Just for the hell of it, I’ll say Miami misses a last minute field goal wide right." Field goals don't matter when you lose by eight points. USC 38, Notre Dame 0 "I predict McKnight has at least one huge play, but this time he gets his touchdown." 51-yard touchdown run to close out a huge shutout win. Not much to complain about here. Missouri 41, Texas Tech 10 "Do they fight back and try to climb the ratings, or do they [Missouri] roll over and die?" I'd say they still have some fight in them. Stanford 21, Arizona 20 "Please Stanford, make that win at USC look just a teeny tiny bit less like a total fluke." That helps a little. Very little. Oregon 55, Washington 34 "They are going to show Jake Locker how a running quarterback system should actually work." Actually they showed him how a runningBACK should work. Jonathan Stewart had 251 yards. Michigan 27, Illinois 17 "But with a loss to Iowa and the way the Wolverines are playing to dominate the rest of the season, I don’t think the Fighting Illini can do it." Close, but no cigar. LSU 30, Auburn 24 "Auburn can’t win in a game of offensive. But they might have a shot in a game of defense. Really, I think this game will tell whether or not LSU can be beaten in a game of defense." I guess they can be beaten for all but the last two seconds. Ohio State 24, Michigan State 17 "Michigan State is not a great team. They may be a good team, or they may only be mediocre. But the same could be said about Ohio State." I still say it's true. Florida 45, Kentucky 37 "With a 2-2 record in the SEC, Florida is in NEXT TO LAST PLACE (!) in the SEC East. The game is CRUCIAL." They knew that, and they took care of it. post comment

Games of Note (Week 8) [18 Oct 2007|10:17am] After falling sub-500 in my picks for last weekend, my first goal is to get more right than I get wrong. Lofty, I know. But you’ve got to start somewhere. Last Week’s Prediction Record: 7-8 YTD Prediction Record: 82-42 My picks are underlined. AND THEN THERE WERE 6 Only six undefeated teams left. I’m beginning to think that this is a season where there won’t be any teams without a loss when all is said and done. None of these undefeateds are going to play each other during the regular season. Instead, many of them face one or two loss teams that provide a much tougher test than some of the other teams without a loss. Three of the remaining teams (Boston College, Arizona State, and Hawaii) have the week off, which only leaves three games featuring undefeated teams. Still, once this weekend is over, I think there will only be 4 undefeated teams left. Two of them are going to lose this weekend. UNDEFEATEDS Later this afternoon, the undefeated South Florida Bulls head to Jersey to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. (#2) South Florida at Rutgers This would be considered a trap game for the Bulls…except that they are fully aware that it’s a trap game, thus negating that quality. I do think this one will be a test for them, but I think they live to see another week at the top of the rankings. Saturday afternoon the undefeated Kansas Jayhawks head for the Rockies as they take on the Colorado Buffaloes. (#13) Kansas at Colorado If the Buffs can knock of an undefeated Oklahoma team at home, they definitely have a chance to knock off an undefeated Kansas team. Better for them to lose now before they get into the top 10 and let it go to their heads. OTHER GAMES OF NOTE Penn State at Indiana Who would have thought that when these two teams played each other, they’d have the same overall and Big 10 records? (#21) Tennessee at Alabama How is anyone supposed to predict games in the SEC? Vanderbilt at (#6) South Carolina Think the Gamecocks were watching when Vandy gave Georgia almost everything it could handle? Texas A&M at Nebraska The question isn’t whether or not they’ll win. The question is by how much. (#12) California at ucla Anyone else tired of ucla being undefeated in the PAC-10? Miami at Florida State Remember last year how everyone complained that having this classic rivalry game as the season opener diminished its importance. So does both teams having two losses each. Just for the hell of it, I’ll say Miami misses a last minute field goal wide right. (#14) USC at Notre Dame I want the Trojans to win by much more than a touchdown. But more importantly, I want the Trojans to win. Regardless of who starts, I think we should be able to get a running game going, even with our makeshift offensive line. Hopefully Johnson is back. Mixing him, Washington, and McKnight could be hugely effective. I predict McKnight has at least one huge play, but this time he gets his touchdown. (#24) Texas Tech at (#16) Missouri Here’s where the Tigers prove whether or not they’re a good team. Do they fight back and try to climb the ratings, or do they roll over and die? Stanford at Arizona Please Stanford, make that win at USC look just a teeny tiny bit less like a total fluke. (#10) Oregon at Washington This Oregon team is playing angry. They are going to show Jake Locker how a running quarterback system should actually work. (#19) Virginia at Maryland Please knock this overrated team out of the rankings. (#25) Michigan at Illinois I’ll root for the underdog and would be happy for Zook if they pulled it off. But with a loss to Iowa and the way the Wolverines are playing to dominate the rest of the season, I don’t think the Fighting Illini can do it. (#17) Auburn at (#4) LSU Call me crazy, but Auburn has a few things in their favor. The first is that LSU is going to be out for blood, and that stadium is going to be going crazy. But Auburn won’t be phased much. The second is that LSU might use their anger in the wrong way and go for the big play when they shouldn’t. Auburn will capitalize on that. Kentucky beat LSU by taking on their offense. Yes, the Wildcat defense had to make some plays, but ultimately they didn’t shut down the Tigers. They just outscored. Auburn can’t win in a game of offensive. But they might have a shot in a game of defense. Really, I think this game will tell whether or not LSU can be beaten in a game of defense. UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK UPOTW Prediction Record: 2-5 Obviously you’ve got no reason to believe me when you look at that record. But a few of those losses have been close. (Of course, so have both of the wins.) This week, I think the Michigan State Spartans will knock off the extremely overrated #1 undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan State at (#1) Ohio State Let’s be clear about a few things here. Michigan State is not a great team. They may be a good team, or they may only be mediocre. But the same could be said about Ohio State. While in my gut I think they are probably much better than Michigan State, I think the entire world (including their team) knows they don’t deserve their ranking. Which means they are going to be fighting hard to prove it. Which means they will make some mistakes and the Spartans will capitalize. If only for a week, I’d love to South Florida to be ranked #1. GAME OF THE WEEK GOTW Prediction Record: 4-3 This is the first week that my pick for Game of the Week doesn’t feature at least one undefeated team. It’s also the first one to feature a two loss team. Even if I had gone with my close second (Auburn/LSU), the same thing would be true. (#15) Florida at (#7) Kentucky With a 2-2 record in the SEC, Florida is in NEXT TO LAST PLACE (!) in the SEC East. The game is CRUCIAL. Coming off of last season, a two loss season is already a disappointment. A THREE loss season, all but knocking them out of a slot in the SEC Title game, would be devastating. Then on the other side, you have the Kentucky Wildcats. Sure they were ranked, but what they just did was HUGE for their program. Since their loss came to division rival South Carolina, they don’t control their own destiny in the SEC. But that certainly is not going to stop them from trying. Knowing they can beat LSU will give them the confidence they need to beat the Gators. As much as I love Tebow and would hate to see him cry again, he has at least one more year. Woodson is a senior, and the man deserves a season to remember. 1 comment|post comment

My Top 12 (Week 7) [18 Oct 2007|12:00am] Quite a few teams here (especially at the top of the list) that I didn't expect there to be. #12: USC I don't necessarily think we are the twelfth worst team on this list. But I can't guarantee that we'd beat any of these teams that are listed ahead of us with the way we are playing. A lot of injured players are expected to make it back during the next two weeks, and we're going to need them. We're also going to need Joe McKnight to continue to get one explosive play per game (at least). #11: Kansas Normally I wouldn't put much water in a team blowing out Baylor, but then again I didn't have much confidence in this team, and it's hard to deny a 40+ margin of victory. Last year they went 6-6, so as long as they don't lose the rest of their games, they'll at least improve on that. I think they'll finish the season ranked. #10: West Virginia I'd keep them lower on the list since they looked horrible in their loss to South Florida, but a non-blowout loss to the #1 team (on my list) isn't so bad. (Sorry to kill the suspense.) They aren't out of the Big East hunt just yet. South Florida still has some tests ahead. #9: Oregon The Ducks might not have played hard enough to win on their home turf while all of the ESPN Gameday audience was watching, but I doubt this year's team would choke like the Cal Bears did. I guess part of the reason is that they remember how many times last year's team choked. #8: Arizona State I think the Sun Devils could go undefeated, and it would still be hard for me to take them seriously. Despite their record, they still haven't played any great competition. But along with ucla, they are undefeated in the PAC-10. We'll see what the next few weeks brings. #7: Oklahoma They've looked good since that upset loss on the road to Colorado. I think the Big 12 Championship game awaits. #6: Kentucky Was losing to South Carolina just bad luck, or is the Kentucky home field advantage actually worth something this year. You can beat it will be this weekend when the Wildcats take on the Gators. Anyone that didn't go to the LSU game is regretting it. Beat the Gators, and Andre Woodson can book his ticket to New York. #5: South Carolina A six point victory over North Carolina ain't so great. But they did beat the team that beat LSU. And handily. Of course, they also lost handily to LSU. Whereas Kentucky is so used to futilty that they can used it as a motivator, I think the Gamecocks are more used to mediocrity, and that doesn't work quite as well. #4: Boston College You know what they say. To win the Heisman, you have to either play for Notre Dame or beat Notre Dame. While I don't think that's the case this year, Matt Ryan did not pound Notre Dame, and for that reason alone I don't think he should win it. I think a few teams will beat BC and knock him out of consideration. #3: LSU If you thought playing the Tigers was tough before, just imagine playing them after they've lost and are pissed. But you know what? I don't think the other Tigers (Auburn) is scared at all. #2: Ohio State I'll actually write something meaningful about the Buckeyes when and if they actually play/beat someone meaningful #1: South Florida I could never have imagined that I'd be putting this team in this spot. But it's the only obvious choice. I'm sorry to say it, but only media bias is preventing them from currently holding the number one spot. If people were voting for the teams they thought would actually win over other teams, a one-loss team would likely still hold the number one spot. But if they're going to vote for the best and most impressive undefeated team, it's clearly the Bulls. They have that road win at Auburn, which didn't look so great once Auburn lost to Mississippi State. But after they beat Florida in the Swamp, it looks a lot better. And if they beat LSU, it will look a lot better. Plus they also beat West Virginia, who's in the top ten. Plus the week that the number one lost, they beat a mediocre team by a much higher margin than any of the other undefeated teams beat their inferior opponents. Basically, the Bulls have two wins over teams in the Top 20. Most of the other undefeated teams don't even have a SINGLE win over any team in the Top 25. The only one would be Kansas, with a win over #25 Kansas State. Who in their right mind isn't voting South Florida number one right now, at least among undefeated teams? post comment

And I Quote... [17 Oct 2007|08:41pm] 7-8 last week. Ouch. I'm getting worse at this. That was my first sub-500 week. Oh well, I guess it happens. There were more upsets, just like I imagined there would be. But I picked the wrong ones. "In fact, even though no undefeateds play each other this weekend, I predict that we’ll only be left with BLANK of them once the weekend is over." I originally wrote "BLANK" because I planned to count up how many undefeateds I had picked to lose, but I forgot to go back and change it. Glad to see no one called me out on it. Looking over it, I picked two undefeateds to lose, which would have left only 9. But there's only six left, and the two I picked to lose actually won. So there were five losses I didn't see coming. Hawaii 45, San Jose State 35 (OT) "The Warriors will put up big numbers, but their bid to make a statement in front of a national audience will be thwarted when it is revealed that they are playing San Jose State." It was also thwarted by the fact that they had to go to overtime to beat San Jose State. Ohio State 48, Kent State 3 "Plus, Kent State’s defense, while good in its own right, can’t stop those Buckeyes." Though, to be fair, they are Kent State. Kansas 58, Baylor 10 "Kansas may not be legitimate (even if they are, it’s hard for me to believe), but even an illegitimate child could beat the Bears." I'll go a step further and say that an illegitimate child could beat the Baylor Bears like a RED-HEADED illegitimate child. Kentucky 43, LSU 37 (3OT) "If Woodson struggled against South Carolina (who has a good defense) just imagine what’s going to happen against LSU." His numbers weren't great, but he sure as hell got the job done. Man, what a game! I attended the USC game, and this was our Parent's Weekend. When I got back to my fraternity house, all of the members and there families were standing in silence around the TV. I asked someone what was going on, and he informed me that this game was about to go into its third overtime. Needless to say, I watched. And needless to say, I cheered mightily. Virginia 17, Connecticut 16 "Let’s allow the Huskies to enjoy being ranked at least once this season." Two more points and they would have been. UConn is only mediocre, but I'd say the same thing about Virginia. Boston College 27, Notre Dame 14 "In case you didn’t know, Heisman candidate Matt Ryan, the BC quarterback, is NOT a walk-on redshirt freshman from ucla. Which means the Irish will lose big." BC needed to put up a LOT more points for me to believe they can go undefeated. No I don't even think they'll win their next game (against Virginia Tech). Louisville 28, Cincinnati 24 "But more importantly, look for the Bearcat “D” to make a statement by shutting down Brian Brohm more than anyone else has so far this year." Brohm threw for 350 yards, which believe it or not, is his second lowest total so far this year. There was another game where he got 366, but in that one he had one less touchdown and one more interception. Basically, the Cincinnati D did a decent job stopping a great quarterback, but their offense didn't get the job done against a horrible defense. Oregon State 31, California 28 "Cal hasn’t been ranked this high in a long, long time. I would long it so much if another PAC-10 team got to feel what it’s like to lose a heartbreaker to an unranked team while enjoying such a high ranking. But I don’t see that happening. Not this week at least." Man, Oregon State likes to fuck up good teams' seasons, doesn't it? Arizona State 44, Washington 20 "I know it’s a new coach and all, but can he really change the tradition of ASU melting down halfway through the season?" Looks like it. Plus, he's a second half coach. They outscored the Huskies 31-3 in the second half. Should make the Arizona State-USC game very interesting. USC 20, Arizona 13 "I don’t care about reestablishing dominance. They can do that against Notre Dame. All I care about is a W." And a W's about all I got. McKnight did have two great plays, so I hope that gets his confidence up. If our players get healthy by the Oregon game and play like they did the second two games of the season, we have a legitimate shot at running the table. South Carolina 21, North Carolina 15 "The Ole Ball Coach versus Butch Davis. It doesn’t get much more interesting than that." Pretty close game. Spurrier had better watch out the rest of the season. Oregon 53, Washington State 7 "Washington State beat the Ducks last year. Unfortunately for them, they still have to play again this year." Holy crap. Auburn 9, Arkansas 7 "And so far this year, not many teams have gotten their revenge from last year." It might not have been an extremely satisfying form of revenge, but I'm sure they'll take it. (They did stuff McFadden though. LSU had better watch out.) South Florida 64, Central Florida 12 "But I don’t think they match-up well size-wise with UCF’s Kevin Smith (Yes, that’s his name.). So if they don’t learn to gang tackle, and quickly, he’ll pound them all day. On top of this, Big East teams don’t yet seem to be able to handle the pressure of being ranked so high." Except that USF's QUARTERBACK nearly doubled his yardage. When the hell did this team find an offense? I could seriously see them going unbeaten and defeating a few of the other highly ranked teams in the championship game. But the pressure is on even more now. Oklahoma 41, Missouri 31 "Either the Sooners are going to reestablish themselves as the dominant force they were at the beginning of the season, or they are going to lose. I don’t see them pulling it out in a close game." They did score over 40 points, but they only won by 10. So I think the Sooners somehow both upheld what I said and contradicted it. post comment

Games Of Note (Week 7) [12 Oct 2007|11:40am] I had another horrible week in picks as I barely broke .500, going 9-8. I can’t promise that I’ll do any better this week because now that USC has a loss, I’m going to be hoping for (and thus picking) some upsets. Last Week’s Prediction Record: 9-8 YTD Prediction Record: 75-34 My pick is underlined. AND THEN THERE WERE 11 After the huge upset of USC, the dismissing of Purdue, and the inevitable losses of Kentucky and Wisconsin, we’re halfway through the season and already down to only 11 undefeated teams. In theory, the season could end with as many as 7. But there’s no way that will happen. In fact, even though no undefeateds play each other this weekend, I predict that we’ll only be left with BLANK of them once the weekend is over. UNDEFEATEDS Tonight the undefeated Hawaii Warriors play the San Jose State Spartans on national television. (#16) Hawaii at San Jose State The Warriors will put up big numbers, but their bid to make a statement in front of a national audience will be thwarted when it is revealed that they are playing San Jose State. Next up, the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes hosts the Kent State Golden Flashes. Kent State at (#3) Ohio State Kent State’s running back has the third most yards of anyone in the country. But last week Miami held him to only 82 yards. Which is still pretty good, I guess, but this was Miami of OHIO. Compared to the defenses he’s faced so far, this will be like facing two defenses at once. Plus, Kent State’s defense, while good in its own right, can’t stop those Buckeyes. At the strange listed starting time of 12:37 PM, the undefeated Kansas Jayhawks hosted the Baylor Bears. Baylor at (#20) Kansas Kansas may not be legitimate (even if they are, it’s hard for me to believe), but even an illegitimate child could beat the Bears. In the afternoon, the undefeated LSU Tigers travel to the home of the Kentucky Wildcats. (#1) LSU at (#17) Kentucky If Woodson struggled against South Carolina (who has a good defense) just imagine what’s going to happen against LSU. But in the end, I have to feel sorry for the Wildcats. They fell from #8 to #17 just by losing to a highly ranked South Carolina team. And they might even fall out of the rankings after losing to LSU. And if not, they DEFINITELY will after losing to Florida next week. But really, could anyone be expected to beat those two teams right now? Still, if Kentucky manages to win its last four games of the season (no easy task, but doable) AND their bowl game, they’ll be 10-3, their first 10-win season in 30 years. Even going 9-4 would make it their best season since 1984. The undefeated Connecticut Huskies travel down south to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. Connecticut at Virginia Sure, the Huskies don’t have any impressive wins whatsoever. But neither do the Cavaliers. In fact, they’ve barely beaten some VERY mediocre (or just plain bad) competition, such as Middle Tennessee State. Let’s allow the Huskies to enjoy being ranked at least once this season. The undefeated Boston College Eagles head to South Bend to remind everyone that the Notre Dame Fighting Irish still sucks. (#4) Boston College at Notre Dame In case you didn’t know, Heisman candidate Matt Ryan, the BC quarterback, is NOT a walk-on redshirt freshman from ucla. Which means the Irish will lose big. The undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats host the grumbling, shell-shocked Louisville Cardinals. Louisville at (#15) Cincinnati All I’ve heard is talk about the Bearcats’ defense, and today I read that they also have the second best offense in the Big East. Against a defense as pathetic as Louisville’s, that should be more that sufficient. But more importantly, look for the Bearcat “D” to make a statement by shutting down Brian Brohm more than anyone else has so far this year. The undefeated California Bears hosts the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State at (#2) California Cal hasn’t been ranked this high in a long, long time. I would long it so much if another PAC-10 team got to feel what it’s like to lose a heartbreaker to an unranked team while enjoying such a high ranking. But I don’t see that happening. Not this week at least. The undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils get more than they hoped for from the visiting Washington Huskies. Washington at (#14) Arizona State I know it’s a new coach and all, but can he really change the tradition of ASU melting down halfway through the season? I hope not, because I love that tradition. Plus, Washington was supposed to have a promising season, but they currently have a losing record and no wins in the PAC-10. Time for both of those to change. OTHER GAMES OF NOTE Arizona at (#10) USC I don’t care about reestablishing dominance. They can do that against Notre Dame. All I care about is a W. Please. Sanchez, don’t try to be a hero. Just be better than Booty’s been the past two weeks. (#7) South Carolina at North Carolina The Ole Ball Coach versus Butch Davis. It doesn’t get much more interesting than that. Washington State at (#9) Oregon Washington State beat the Ducks last year. Unfortunately for them, they still have to play again this year. (#22) Auburn at Arkansas Why on earth would I pick this? Because it’s a revenge game. And so far this year, not many teams have gotten their revenge from last year. West Virginia lost to South Florida again. Florida State lost to Wake Forest again. And of course, Florida lost to Auburn again. As they say, history repeats itself. UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK UPOTW Prediction Record: 2-4 Central Florida at (#5) South Florida Saturday morning’s first game featuring an undefeated team has the South Florida Bulls hosting the Central Florida Knights. As we all know, the Black Knight always triumphs. It may sound crazy, but this is a UCF team that gave Texas just about all it could handle. South Florida had a bit of a let down game last week but still came out with a win, and that might not happen here. UCF always has a bruising, punishing runner. The Bulls’ best strength on defense is their speed, which allows them to neutralize guys that like to go to the outside or try to weave between tacklers. (Just ask Steve Slaton and Pat White about the past two games against them.) But I don’t think they match-up well size-wise with UCF’s Kevin Smith (Yes, that’s his name.). So if they don’t learn to gang tackle, and quickly, he’ll pound them all day. On top of this, Big East teams don’t yet seem to be able to handle the pressure of being ranked so high. GAME OF THE WEEK GOTW Prediction Record: 4-2 The undefeated Missouri Tigers venture to Norman in the hopes of taking out (or just getting by) the Oklahoma Sooners. (#11) Missouri at (#6) Oklahoma Either the Sooners are going to reestablish themselves as the dominant force they were at the beginning of the season, or they are going to lose. I don’t see them pulling it out in a close game. If Daniel Chase (Missouri QB) can avoid getting injured and not make stupid mistakes, the Tigers can continue their dream season. *Trojan Fan Alert*: You may not be sure who to root for in this one. Yes, Oklahoma is currently ranked ABOVE USC while Missouri is ranked right below them (AP). But a Tigers win of this significance would surely propel them past the one-loss Trojans. However, should Oklahoma win, at the least they wouldn’t move. While the Sooners could lose to someone else down the line (anything’s possible after losing to Colorado), no one sticks out. But I can see Missouri not being able to handle the pressure of being undefeated and losing later on. So for now, I say root for the Tigers. 1 comment|post comment

My Top 12 (Week 6) [11 Oct 2007|11:11am] Here’s my weekly Top 12. I’m not sure if I’ve talked about it before, but let me give you a little insight into how I pick these. Mainly it is a listing of how good I think the teams are, which would be the obvious way to order them. But secondary to that is what their chances of playing for the national championship game are. This is where their records factor in. Some teams I don’t think are great, but they keep winning. Others have a loss (or two) that knocks them down. If I was ignoring losses, I’d put Florida as the number two team right now because there’s no one other than LSU that I’d pick to beat them in a game right now. #12: Kansas I refused to take them seriously before their win over Kansas State. Now I don’t know what to think. Either it’s like my friend Quincy says and they’re the best team in the nation, or else my brain is going to explode. They beat Kansas State, but maybe KState just isn’t that great. But they whalloped Texas. So maybe next ain’t that good? But they held their own against Oklahoma. Could the Sooners be overrated? In short, this is why I love college football. #11: Hawaii Making a BCS game is not out of the question, but the Warriors definitely have to go undefeated in order for that to happen. They are 6-0 and ranked 16th in the polls, though that does put them above Cincinnati, Kansas, and unranked Connecticut. I’m not complaining about the lack of love they’re getting. It’s entirely appropriate. Because even if they do make a BCS game, it will be super boring compared to last year’s. #10: USC The good news for the Trojans is that they can get back into the title hunt because they play two high-ranked undefeated teams and another high ranked one-loss team. The bad news is that these teams are Cal, Arizona State, and Oregon, and USC has to play all three on the road. With the crazy stuff that’s been going on in college football this year (and taking into account what happened after the Cal loss in 2003 and after the Oregon State loss last year), USC could easily be back in the national title discussion before you know it. However, looking at that daunting schedule, I would be ECSTATIC if the Trojans simply managed to win the PAC-10 again, either outright or as co-champions. Unfortunately, I think they’ll have to do it outright. If they were to lose again, it HAS to be a team that already has a PAC-10 loss, or else it’s over. #9: South Carolina With only one SEC loss to a team in a different division, all* the Gamecocks have to do is win out in order to have a likely rematch with LSU in the SEC Championship game. *Of course, that includes playing Tennessee and Arkansas at home, as well as hosting Florida. Gotta love the SEC. #8: Cincinnati I think I’m one of the few people that thinks the Bearcats “D” is legitimate. We’ll find out for sure when they play Brian Brohm and the potent Louisville offense this weekend. #7: Arizona State I guess I have to rank them this high simply because they haven’t done anything wrong. #6: Missouri They shellacked Nebraska, which has partly to do with their QB finding his rhythm and partly to do with the Huskers just not being that good. (Which, incidentally, means USC’s rushing total against them isn’t the most amazing thing ever, though it’s still impressive.) Since the 60 point Oklahoma seems to have left town and been replaced by the 20 point Oklahoma, I don’t see the Tigers losing to them. #5: Boston College They finally got some sort of offense going, but that was against Bowling Green. With the schedule they have coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised if they need a Hail Mary to win a game. (Not saying they’ll get it, but wouldn’t that be awesome?) #4: South Florida If they keep turning the ball over like they’ve been doing, they aren’t gonna stay unbeaten for long. #3: Ohio State The Buckeyes are like your annoying neighbor who won’t go away. Someone please murder that neighbor for me. #2: Cal There’s a lot standing in the way of an undefeated season. For instance, their last game of the year is AT Stanford. #1: LSU 5 for 5 on 4th down conversions? ANOTHER converted fake field goal? If Les Miles wasn’t the coach and LSU wasn’t the team, I just might like them. post comment

And I Quote... [09 Oct 2007|11:34am] Another bad weekend, in that I went 9-8 in my predictions. Oh, and there was that business about my USC Trojans losing to a Stanford team starting a QB that had only thrown three passes in his career…AT HOME. I hope that kid turns out to be amazing. (He wasn’t that great against us stat-wise, but his confidence and cajones were huge.) But I’ll talk more about that game when I get to it. Here are some quotes from my predictions. The underlined team is who I picked to win, and the statements in bold are my reactions to what happened. “But I think there will be two upsets, leaving us with only 12.” Actually I picked three other undefeated teams to lose besides the loser of the Ohio State/Purdue matchup. Which means I really thought there would only be 11. (I picked undefeated and unranked Kansas to lose to #24 Kansas State, which really wouldn’t have been an upset, so I got confused.) That said, only one of the three undefeated teams I picked to lose actually did. But two others did instead, so the number was accurate. South Carolina 38, Kentucky 23 “I don’t think they’ll [Gamecocks] be able to keep the Wildcats from scoring, and I don’t think their offense can keep them in the game.” Very wrong on both accounts. Boston College 55, Bowling Green 24 “The BC offense needs to put some serious points on the board if they want to be taken seriously as title contenders.” I’d say they accomplished that. Plus, they are now #4 in the nation, so regardless of whether or not anyone takes them seriously, if they win out they have a serious shot at going. Kansas 30, Kansas State 24 “The Wildcats will no doubt have a bit of a let down game coming off their Texas throttling. But it will still be more than enough to take out the Jayhawks.” I have no idea what this means. Is Kansas legit? Is Kansas State just not that good and got lucky against Texas? South Florida 35, Florida Atlantic 23 “I expect there to only be half as many turnovers as the 10 that were featured in their game against West Virginia. But I think only one will come from the Bulls, unless their QB starts playing mad scientist again.” Well, there were EXACTLY half (5), but FOUR of them came from the Bulls. They can’t keep winning with that kind of turnover margin. Just ask the Trojans. Arizona State 23, Washington State 20 “Perhaps their new coach will keep them from melting halfway through the season.” If anyone saw this game, perhaps you saw the WORST CALL ever that was then UPHELD by the video replay crew. (I think it goes without saying that the worst call ever would come from a Pac-10 crew, but this was the worst call I’ve ever seen one of them do.) Basically, a Washington State receiver catches a pass in the endzone. Takes two steps in-bounds. His KNEE comes down IN-BOUNDS as the defender tackles him. As they come to a sliding stop out of bounds, he then drops the ball. (I think this was after he actually hit the goalpost, but maybe he just came close to it.) They ruled that it was an incomplete pass because he didn’t have control. But replays showed that even though he moved the ball toward his chest, NEITHER of his hands ever left the ball, and it didn’t move at all. He only adjusted the position of it. As it was being reviews, the commentators were certain it would be overturned. No dice. The Cougars kicked a field goal instead, costing them four points. And they lost by three. Ouch. Stanford 24, USC 23 “USC will be angry. What they do with that anger remains to be seen. They could try too hard and start having penalties again. But since it’s at home, I think they do the opposite and shutout Stanford just like they did last season. At most, I think the Farm gets two field goals.” I posted everything that I said just so you can see how ridiculous it is that USC lost this game. I don’t understand why we didn’t try harder to establish the run. I don’t understand how we couldn’t pressure their quarterback more. I don’t understand how they could pressure our line so much. I do understand how our defense could give up 24 points to Stanford, and I more than forgive them. For starters, they actually only gave up 17, as one touchdown came from a returned interception. (That makes two in two games for those of you keeping score in home.) Another came after an amazing catch put them at first and goal. And the last one came after two timeouts and a penalty and everything was kind of crazy. Giving up that 4th and 20, however, is hard to forgive. It seemed like they were playing more to defend the touchdown than the first down. Understandable to an extent, but it almost seemed like we were playing scared. Also, I think I’ve jumped on the Booty hate train. Last season I was trying to convince everyone that he wasn’t so bad, and I felt somewhat vindicated by his performance in the Rose Bowl. I still don’t think he’s so bad (the newly implemented O-line and dropped passes factor in to what’s been going on), but he has a knack for making the worst decisions at the worst possible times. And it wasn’t until after the game that I found out he played most of it with a broken middle finger (the tip). He said something along the lines of there being no way he was coming out of that game, even if it did affect him a little bit. Thanks, Booty. Thanks for pulling a Ken Dorsey Fiesta Bowl. Cincinnati 28, Rutgers 21 “But I think Rutgers uses its anger the wrong way and gets some penalties or tries too hard and gives up turnovers that allow the Bearcats to win.” Rutgers has less penalty yardage and only one more turnover. But that one was interception at Cincinnati’s 17 with only a minute remaining. Also, the Rutgers QB managed throw for over 330 yards with no touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Ohio State 23, Purdue 7 “No matter who wins, we won’t know whether one team is great or the other is overrated until later in the season.” Purdue didn’t get that touchdown until the 4th quarter, so we do know that Ohio State’s defense is pretty good. But I think it’s clear that Purdue’s 5-0 record was kind of a sham. Missouri 41, Nebraska 6 “The Huskers are still gonna lose without a decent defense to stop an emerging QB.” Said QB just threw for 401 yards and two touchdowns plus rushed for 72 yards and two more scores on 11 carries, a 6.5 average. Though I think it’s pretty evident that Nebraska was way overrated, I think Chase Daniel has arrived. And next week against Oklahoma will show us for sure. Oh, and it looks like Missouri has a defense too. Hawaii 52, Utah State 37 “If Hawaii doesn’t blow out the Aggies, they should never be ranked this high again.” Not a blowout, but then again Colt Brennan did get hurt and have to be replaced. Everyone says that their productive QBs are just part of “the system.” But when a guy can come of the bench and go 9 of 11 for 246 yards, three scores, and one interception, that’s pretty incredible. Anywhere else, and they’d call it “depth.” Auburn 35, Vanderbilt 7 “Could this be a trap game for the Tigers?” No. Oklahoma 28, Texas 21 “Both of these quarterbacks need to rebound and have a great game. Colt McCoy has more experience, and a much cooler name, so I think he’ll do a better job with this.” McCoy did have 80 more passing yards than Bradford, but also one less score and one more interception. (That is, only one, whereas Bradford had none.) Still, the difference maker was a fumble by Texas’ RB that would have been a touchdown. Oregon State 31, Arizona 16 “My guess is Oregon State will end up being the worst team this season.” Actually it looks like it’ll be one of the Washington schools this year. Notre Dame 20, ucla 6 “Normally I’d root for the Irish in this match-up because I actually respect them. But it’s impossible to respect them this year.” I still don’t respect them. As much as I hate to admit it, ucla has a pretty good excuse for what happened. They were already playing with their back-up QB (who has been their starter in the past), and he went out with a knee injury. In comes a redshirt freshman WALK-ON who throws 4 picks. But after what happened to USC, I’m glad ucla isn’t able to hold it over our heads too much. Granted, USC has no excuse, but at least Stanford had won a game already. (San Jose State counts, right?) I just hope USC gets to play against that QB too. I mean, that’s only fair, right? Illinois 31, Wisconsin 26 “I think the only reason they [Wisconsin] won last week is because they were at home. But they aren’t this week, so they lose.” Illinois is going to at least tie for the Big Ten Championship. You heard it hear first folks. LSU 28, Florida 24 “I think Tim Tebow will personally murder members of the other team if that’s what it takes to win this game.” He was probably thinking about it. I saw the look in his eye. And the game was Florida’s until a costly pick that wasn’t Tebow’s fault. A receiver didn’t turn in time, and the ball bounced off his helmet. From there, LSU rode the momentum to a win. Even though Les Miles reminds me of Gene Hackman as Lex Luthor, even I can’t deny the man’s balls for going for it on 4th and short FIVE TIMES. And converting EVERY SINGLE one. This includes one early in the game when they were on the goal line and down 10-0. They got the touchdown. Then, with a little over two minutes left, down by three, and in easy field goal range, they went for it again. The man is playing like someone trying TO win a championship and not someone trying NOT to lose one. They will be tough to stop with that kind of bravery and delivery. 6 comments|post comment

navigation [ viewing | most recent entries ] [ go | earlier ]